Emmy Predictions 2012: We Pick the Winners
Outstanding Comedy Series
Nominees: The Big Bang Theory, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Girls, Modern Family, 30 Rock, Veep
Our pick to win: Modern Family
You know a show is good when all six of its leads get Emmy nods in the acting categories. The broad appeal that's already won this cunning-yet-sweet sitcom two best comedy trophies is still in evidence, making it hard to imagine any of the other nominees knocking it from its throne.
Outstanding Lead Actor In a Comedy Series
Nominees: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock; Don Cheadle, House of Lies; Louis C.K., Louie; Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men; Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm; Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Our pick to win: Louis C.K., Louie
FX's Louie doesn’t come close to attracting the number of viewers of, say, Modern Family. But this edgy comic is a critical darling and clearly a favourite among industry types; after all, he and his show garnered seven nominations this year. Emmy voters do love Jim Parsons, but he has already taken this trophy twice. C.K. definitely has the edge here.
Outstanding Lead Actress In a Comedy Series
Nominees: Zooey Deschanel, New Girl; Lena Dunham, Girls; Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie; Tina Fey, 30 Rock; Julia Louis-Dreyfus; Veep, Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly; Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Our pick to win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Louis-Dreyfus has always been funny, and she's been rewarded for it with acting Emmys for both Seinfeld and The New Adventures of Old Christine. But her edgy Veep character, Selina Meyer, is more than just funny. She's endearing, mean-spirited, confident and frazzled; professionally, she's both powerful and utterly powerless. She got as many laughs as the other nominees in this category, but she did it with a much more challenging character.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In a Comedy Series
Nominees: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory; Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives; Julie Bowen, Modern Family; Sofia Vergara, Modern Family; Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie; Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Our pick to win: Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Wiig will have to win over those inclined to once again vote for Julie Bowen (who won this award last year, and was no less hilarious in Modern Family's season 3). But this is Wiig's fourth nod for her broadly loved work on SNL, and the last chance voters have to give her props. This must be her year to take home some hardware.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In a Comedy Series
Nominees: Ed O'Neill, Modern Family; Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family; Ty Burrell, Modern Family; Max Greenfield, New Girl; Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
Our pick to win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
In a category stocked with Modern Family actors, why will Burrell win this award for the second year running? Because the tape he submitted for this year's consideration featured hilarious scenes like this one. Need we say more?
Outstanding Drama Series
Nominees: Boardwalk Empire, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Mad Men
Our pick to win: Mad Men
Not only has this critically acclaimed period drama won four times already (a feat achieved by only three other shows: Hill Street Blues, L.A. Law and The West Wing), but odds are good that it will make Emmy history by winning a fifth trophy. Why? Consistently well-written scripts, above average acting, and a storyline that continues to surprise us with each passing year. Who knew that Don's (Jon Hamm) new wife Megan (Jessica Pare) would turn out to be such an interesting character with her own complex drives? Even her parents were fascinating.
Outstanding Lead Actor In a Drama Series
Nominees: Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey; Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire; Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad' Michael C. Hall, Dexter; Jon Hamm, Mad Men; Damian Lewis, Homeland
Our pick to win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Cranston was nominated in this category three times before, and won each time. Now he's up for his fourth trophy. While it seems downright wrong that Jon Hamm will lose again (he's been nominated four times now), Cranston perfectly embodies the chemistry teacher-turned-sociopath Walter White, ratcheting up the horror in nuanced increments with each passing season. Emmy voters will almost certainly feel the need to acknowledge his performance.
Outstanding Lead Actress In a Drama Series
Nominees: Kathy Bates, Harry's Law; Glenn Close, Damages; Claire Danes, Homeland; Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey; Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife; Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Our pick to win: Claire Danes, Homeland
As volatile CIA analyst Carrie Mathison, Danes got to dive into the meatiest role of her career, and boy, did she go deep. It's hard to find a critic to fault her performance. If she does lose, it will be to reigning best actress Julianna Margulies, who had another great season on The Good Wife. But don't count on it.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In a Drama Series
Nominees: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad; Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey; Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Our pick to win: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
When Downton Abbey competed as a miniseries, Emmy voters handed this iconic thespian a supporting actress Emmy for her role as Lady Violet Crawley. Now that the show is competing in the drama category, odds are good that she'll impress them again. It's a shame that thrice-nominated Christina Hendricks hasn't won this yet -- her portrayal of Joan Holloway on Mad Men this season was heartbreakingly good -- but Smith seems most likely to prevail.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In a Drama Series
Nominees: Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad; Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad; Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey; Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Jared Harris, Mad Men
Our pick to win: Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Esposito played the unapologetically evil Gus with such, well, gusto, that fans actually found themselves rooting for him. Of course, their alternative was to pull for the show's anti-hero, Walt (Bryan Cranston), and that's also getting harder and harder to do.
Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series
Nominees: The Colbert Report, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Late Night with Jimmy Fallon, Real Time With Bill Maher, Saturday Night Live
Our pick to win: The Daily Show With Jon Stewart
Jimmy Fallon had a wonderfully funny year, and not just because he got President Obama to slow jam the news (although that was awesome). But entertaining as Fallon is, no one matches the consistently clever Jon Stewart and his crack team of fake news reporters. As usual, he deserves to win, and it would be just plain weird if he didn't.
Outstanding Reality Competition Program
Nominees: The Amazing Race, Dancing with the Stars, Project Runway, So You Think You Can Dance, Top Chef, The Voice
Our pick to win: Top Chef
The Amazing Race has won the Emmy every year since this category was created -- except for one. In 2010, Top Chef staged an upset, and it's entirely possible that Bravo's culinary challenge could grab the crown again. Why? Because of the delicious episode the show submitted for consideration: It's the one where contestants prepared a dish inspired by Snow White and the Huntsman, which featured special judges Charlize Theron and Eric Ripert.
Outstanding Reality Show
Nominees: Antiques Roadshow, Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution, MythBusters, Undercover Boss, Who Do You Think You Are?, Shark Tank
Our pick to win: Jamie Oliver's Food Revolution
Who can fault Oliver's noble endeavour to reform school lunches and educate viewers about preventing childhood obesity? This is the only show nominated that has already won in this category (in 2010), and it would be surprising if Oliver didn't carry the day again.
Next Up: Emmys countdown: our favourite red carpet looks from 2011
As we count down to the 2012 Emmy Awards, see who shined on the 2011 red carpet for TV's biggest night.
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